UUP conference: looking forward

Ulster Unionists are weighing up their place in the political system and considering how to reverse a long decline.

Peter Cheney reports on the conference.

‘Common Sense Government’ seemed the right slogan for a longstanding conservative party, again settling into the Executive but several Ulster Unionists see their future outside that fold. Around 400 UUP delegates gathered for the party’s annual conference in Armagh on 22 October.

For now, though, the party is focused on improving government from within. Most parties want smaller government and have gone into detail about what the revised departments should do. Tom Elliott, though, proposed how and when to achieve it: a cut from 12 to eight when justice devolution is reviewed next year. It is the most obvious opportunity for change before the next Assembly election.

Turning to his own party’s performance, Elliott warned that voters needed reasons to vote UUP, one being the Executive’s delay and apathy. A “sky high lack of interest in politics” was a danger for all parties and Northern Ireland was ruled through a “flawed democratic process”.

The fact of power-sharing and the Assembly’s survival for four years was not good enough: “How long do we keep telling people that it’s better than what we used to have?” In a neighbourly gesture, Mary McAleese was praised for her contribution to peace. Pressure to leave government is growing but the status quo has allowed Danny Kennedy to scrap car parking charges in town centres and influence the future of transport and water policy.

Ulster Unionists are keen to restate their role in leading unionism through the Troubles and taking risks for the peace process. The House of Commons’ failure to invite the party to a commemoration for murdered MP Robert Bradford (mistakenly described as a DUP member) caused hurt. Some inquiries into the Troubles are seen as rewriting history with a bias against the state.

Links

History is always in the air at UUP conferences but it appeared that members were becoming more realistic about the party’s future prospects. It’s always tempting for them to look back to the days when the UUP was dominant (which ended six years ago) but it now finds itself in a much weaker position. The gap before the European Parliament in June 2014 gives the party a breathing space to consider two key questions: how to link with the Tories and whether to go into opposition.

Owen Paterson’s appearance highlighted the UUP’s failed pact and continuing partnership with the Conservatives. Members appreciated Westminster’s support for Presbyterian Mutual Society members and tax-cutting plans for corporation tax and air passenger duty. Elliott had campaigned on “no more UCUNFs” but clearly wants to have some Tory link e.g. within a centre-right federation if the Scottish Conservatives become more independent.

Too close a link with the Conservatives at a time of spending cuts will be politically costly. However, the more embarrassing relationship is between its members and the Orange Order. Party Chairman David Campbell was “ashamed and disgusted” at a Belfast lodge’s protest over Elliott and Kennedy attending Constable Ronan Kerr’s funeral and robustly pointed out how previous leaders showed the same example. Mike Nesbitt put in a strong performance in the economy debate. Fellow former journalist Fearghal McKinney demonstrated the “trust” and “hand of friendship” between the UUP and SDLP by chairing a panel discussion. Both parties are going through a considerable amount of soul-searching about their future but the UUP is in a more stable position under Elliott’s leadership.

The conventional media story is one of continual UUP decline. At Assembly level, the party has shed almost half its voters since the Belfast Agreement (a net loss of 84,694 first preferences). It lost two Assembly seats and 15,614 votes between 2007 and 2011, and 16 councillors and 25,113 votes between 2005 and 2011. The Westminster collapse is well-known.

However, that is not the full picture as the table below shows.

Tom Elliott has not recovered ground but the decline has apparently stopped, with a support base fluctuating between 80,000 and 100,000 voters. The difference between the council and Assembly figures may be due to supporters voting DUP to stop Martin McGuinness becoming First Minister.

The UUP is winning in the west and south but losing the east of the province. It’s ahead of the DUP in five councils (Armagh, Banbridge, Fermanagh, Newry and Mourne, Moyle) and in the Newry and Armagh constituency.

Those successes need to be weighed against dismal performances in greater Belfast where most Ulster Unionists came in on the late counts, well behind Alliance. The UUP’s centre of gravity is well outside the capital (perhaps near the Cathedral City) and, overall, it remains a long distance behind the DUP.

Opposition in practice

Accountability at Stormont can improve if a proper opposition is provided, according to speakers at a Young Unionist fringe meeting. Essentially, they wanted to see the UUP acting as a clear alternative to the DUP rather than sharing collective blame for bad Executive decisions.

Michael Shilliday explained that speaking time and finances for researchers depended on the number of MLAs per party, not a place in government. An official opposition would require specific funding but “democracy costs money”.

Ed Miliband’s office is allocated £700,699 for 2011-2012.

The UUP would obviously lose access to Executive papers but, under the Westminster system, the official opposition is sent an advanced copy of ministerial statements. Sceptics fear that leaving the Executive will give the DUP and Sinn Féin a free hand. Shilliday said that the UK Supreme Court could strike down legislation that ran against British liberal democracy.

Reg Empey noted that all parties had to have “a hand on the wheel” at the time of the Agreement but no-one envisaged that those structures would last forever.

The pro-opposition lobby hopes to persuade grassroots members and is prepared for a detailed debate. It also wants cross-community support for change, and sees Alex Attwood and Conall McDevitt as the most supportive SDLP members.