Upper Bann

This was the jewel in the crown of 2005’s DUP landslide, the party faithful gathering at the Banbridge count centre after the downfall of David Trimble. That said, Upper Bann has traditionally been safe ground for the Ulster Unionists (they held it for 22 years under McCusker and Trimble) and David Simpson’s lead over the UUP is just over the 5,000 mark.

Simpson will run again for the DUP this time round, while Harry Hamilton has the New Force candidacy. Commentators have focused on the fact that both have musical careers, respectively as a gospel singer and Freddy Mercury impersonator. On a similar turnout in 2007, both parties’ polls dropped – to 13,466 for the DUP and 9,117 for the UUP – and the TUV is likely to test its popularity as well.

Sinn Féin, meanwhile, garnered 10,851 votes three years ago while the SDLP has levelled off with 5,450 first preferences. John O’Dowd and Dolores Kelly run again. The same trends are likely to continue. Alliance polled poorly in 2005, with under 1,000 votes, and did not improve at the Assembly poll; it was overtaken that time round by the Greens.

Much of the fire has gone out of the bitter Drumcree dispute but the parading problem was brought back into the headlines with the talks after the Hillsborough Agreement. However, it is likely that everyday issues will matter most among the constituency’s commuter belt residents.