Strangford

One to Watch

The DUP will for the first time since 1997 contest a Strangford general election seat without Iris Robinson as ammunition. Together with Leicestershire North West, Strangford is one of two constituencies in the UK which is without a sitting MP.

Jim Shannon will take on the disgraced Robinson’s mantle, not to mention her 13,000 majority, against the former UTV news presenter Mike Nesbitt, who has been controversially selected as the UCUNF candidate for the constituency.

Such a newcomer makes the result difficult to call, especially given Nesbitt’s possible individual appeal to voters along with the potential damage to the DUP in the area.

Strangford unionists in general stand to lose voters to boundary changes as Dundonald moves into East Belfast, along with Enler.

On the face of it, the seat is Shannon’s to lose given the UUP’s poor outing in 2005; though officially finishing in second place, Gareth McGimpsey polled fewer than 8,000 votes. However sounds from the European count in June 2009 indicated that the UUP may have ‘won’ the area in that contest.

In 2007, the DUP’s vote dropped slightly, to 18,062. That won’t bother the party, though, given that the UUP had a 1,000- vote drop itself. Alliance’s Kieran McCarthy would appear to be the main beneficiary there. His vote rose from 3,332 to 4,085 in two years. Deborah Girvan will stand for Alliance this time out.

There is also a small nationalist contingent, most likely stemming from the Ards Peninsula, of around 3,500 in 2005. That vote rose in 2007 to over 4,000. Traditional Unionist Terry Williams will also stand for election, causing the now familiar three-way unionist split.

Sinn Féin’s candidate is Ballynahinch councilor Michael Coogan.