Stormont leverage a gamble
The DUP’s attempts to muscle its way into negotiations between the UK and the EU could come at a large cost domestically, writes David Whelan.
Soon after taking up post as the new leader of the DUP, Jeffrey Donaldson MP met with Prime Minister Boris Johnson to voice his concerns around the Northern Ireland Protocol. The pledge by Johnson that negotiations to alter the post-Brexit trading arrangements would be short, sharp, and concluded within three weeks was the latest in a long line of unfulfilled assurances by the UK Government geared at appeasing unionists.
The DUP has constantly advocated for the triggering of Article 16 but to date, both former and current UK Brexit negotiators have sought only to threaten its use, much to the frustration of the Brexit-supporting party who will have to explain the existence of an Irish Sea border on the doorsteps in the coming weeks and months.
With three months to go until the scheduled 5 May election, coupled with legislation passing through Westminster that would prevent the immediate calling of an election and enable the Assembly and ministerial portfolios to continue in liminal form, the DUP has opted to roll the dice.
With a meeting of the joint working committee between the UK and the EU scheduled for 21 February, a date earmarked as a possible deadline for any new deal to be agreed, the DUP hopes that the collapse of the Executive will cause sufficient noise for the UK Government to prioritise unionist concerns, and also offer the Government leverage in its negotiations with the EU.
However, in calling for the Protocol to be scrapped, and suggesting the party may not return to government until it is satisfied, the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson is taking a risk.
The Northern Ireland Protocol enabled Northern Ireland to remain aligned with the EU single market for goods to enable free movement of trade across the island, however, as Great Britain is no longer in the EU, checks on Great Britain goods take place at ports in Northern Ireland to make sure they comply with EU laws.
The EU published a range of proposals to help reduce checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain but has constantly reiterated its unwillingness to remove the Protocol, part of a deal already agreed by Britain and one which is enshrined in international law.
In late January, the EU chief negotiator Maroš Šefčovič gave a bleak assessment of negotiation progress so far to a private meeting of European parliament members. Despite having met for talks with Liz Truss, Šefčovič expressed his surprise that the UK’s negotiator continued to demand changes which the EU had already ruled out.
For the DUP, influence and being seen to have influence by the electorate is key.
It is perhaps no coincidence then that the resignation of First Minister Paul Givan MLA came just hours after officials in Northern Ireland appeared to ignore an order by Givan’s party colleague and Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots MLA to stop post-Brexit checks on agriculture and food goods at Northern Ireland’s ports.
The High Court has since issued an interim order to suspend the Minister’s decision until a judicial review can be heard in full, however, by then, it was clear that officials had already ignored the Minister’s order.
Prior to the current round of negotiations, the EU Commission had already said that failures of the current system for checks on agri-food at Northern Ireland’s sea ports were undermining the credibility of guarantees of the UK Government to implement EU law.
In a draft report detailing findings of its audit, the EU Commission said that the system of controls in place for animals and agri-food products entering Northern Ireland is “not fit for purpose” and did not comply with EU rules.
The audit was based on examinations done in June 2021 and the EU assessed that inadequate resources were a determining factor in the failure to comply and raised concerns around infrastructure and the lack of a functional control system.
The Commission says that the UK Government “has failed” to ensure sufficient human and structural resources have been made available to the responsible competent authorities in Northern Ireland.
Recommendations included the introduction of proper facilities, ensuring access to a sufficient number of suitably qualified staff for authorities, better information sharing and better systems for checking pets and personal agri-food products.
Donaldson and the DUP hope that the crisis at Stormont will be enough to heavily influence the outcome of the UK-EU negotiations. A deal that removes checks on goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland would give the party a solid base on which to fight the forthcoming election.
However, the absence of such a deal will leave them empty-handed and vulnerable to an electorate already weary of Stormont’s fragility.
The removal of an Executive has many implications, most notably, on a proposed three-year budget. As Northern Ireland aims to recover from the pandemic, a three-year budget, prioritising healthcare, needed Executive approval by March. A single-year budget will not deliver the type of long-term investments needed to kickstart healthcare transformation and address the waiting list crisis.
Additional implications include the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, which, up until now had been agreed by the Executive and the long-delayed official apology for survivors of institutional child abuse, which had been scheduled for March.
Public opinion will also be influenced by when an election takes place. Calls for an early election, including by Sinn Féin, would put greater pressure on a busy legislative programme in the Assembly, with 28 bills currently at risk if adequate time cannot be found for scrutiny and passage.
