Lagan Valley

Switching parties did not loosen Jeffrey Donaldson’s grip on this overwhelmingly unionist seat back in 2005. DUP support also held up well in the Assembly poll (20,098 first preferences) but the party was rattled by the 2008 Dromore by-election, where TUV transfers handed the UUP a win.

A Trimble revival is the UCUNF’s hope as Lady Daphne takes to the campaign trail. The party’s support has, though, slipped to 7,777 votes at Assembly level and would need to almost triple that to come near to winning again. Familiarity, no doubt, will help Donaldson as will his friendship with his long-serving predecessor James Molyneaux.

Keith Harbinson, the Dromore TUV candidate, is now running for Westminster but it is difficult to gauge his support. The hard-line UK Unionists numbered 853 in 2007 and Harbinson’s previous poll was 739 votes.

Fortunes for the constituency’s smaller parties have fluctuated. Alliance dropped slightly to 3,765 votes in 2007 while Sinn Féin spectacularly gained almost 2,000 supporters after supporting the PSNI. Its last poll (5,098) contrasted sharply with the SDLP’s poor performance (2,839). Paul Butler again runs for Sinn Féin this year and the SDLP candidate is Brian Heading.

Turnout is slightly under average. While most of Lagan Valley is solidly unionist, its fringes in Twinbrook and Poleglass are deepest green. The more mixed areas of Dunmurry and Glenavy have been moved into West Belfast and South Antrim respectively. This leaves a smaller nationalist support base but the real battle is between unionists and, in particular, their judgement on one of Peter Robinson’s closest allies.