Foyle

This, as they say, is Mark Durkan’s baby. He has signalled that his political future lies in Westminster and not at Stormont. If he wins here, the former SDLP leader will not stand for re-election to the Assembly next year.

In 2005 he enjoyed a 6,000 vote majority ahead of Sinn Féin. Both parties’ vote fell hand in hand in 2007 with the SDLP polling 15,182 and Sinn Féin on 12,649. The constituency is set to decrease in size as well as in electorate. With Derry City Council wards Banagher and Claudy moving from Foyle to East Londonderry, Foyle generally speaking will cover just Derry City.

According to the 2005 local council results as many as 3,439 SDLP voters will find themselves redeployed. The DUP is also set to lose up to 2,688.

In 2007 the DUP’s sole Foyle candidate William Hay topped the poll by around 600 votes ahead of the former SDLP leader, but Durkan can reasonably expect to garner a significant personal vote. Councillor Maurice Devenney is running for the DUP this time.

The UUP still have some way to go in spite of adding 700 votes to its tally in the Stormont poll. David Harding is the UCUNF man.

With no sign of Ben Reel or Eamonn McCann entering the race, it is difficult to call where their 1,700 voters will plump or indeed if they will turn out at all.

SEA = Socialist Environmental Alliance