Fermanagh & South Tyrone

One to Watch

The introduction of a new SDLP face in the shape of former UTV presenter Fearghal McKinney and the pledge by DUP’s Arlene Foster and UUP’s Tom Elliott, to step aside if a unified unionist candidate is agreed, mean that speculation is rife in the constituency where Sinn Féin have held the seat since the 2001 general election.

A “huge” amount of resentment still exists over the fact that the UUP lost the seat it had held for 18 years to Michelle Gildernew in 2001. Gildernew, who was elected on a margin of 53 votes and has retained the seat since, is insisting that the constituency is nationalist and she has no need for concern in the forthcoming election.

McKinney’s arrival prompted Gildrenew to call him an East Belfast based “celebrity”, but the fact that Sinn Féin and the SDLP used to be neck-and-neck in the 1990s means that there could be a nationalist contest on the cards.

In the unionist ranks, both DUP and the UUP had agreed on a single unionist candidate, former PSNI Chief Superintendent Norman Baxter, but he has since pulled out. Elliott has now been selected for the New Force.

The UUP experienced a slight increase of 265 votes in the 2007 Assembly elections from 8,869 to 9,134. But the DUP, Sinn Féin and the SDLP saw their polls decrease. This may be due to the fact that more hard-line nationalist candidates took votes from Gildernew. The results were: Sinn Féin 16,833; DUP 11,838; and SDLP 6,483.

Theoretically, taking those elections as a mid-point, combined DUP and UUP votes (20,972) would surpass Sinn Féin. With the turnout usually in the 70 per cent region, a late united unionist candidate could mean a close call between the nationalist and unionist camps.