Economy
While still keeping the economy as first priority, the draft Programme for Government offers few radical solutions for the province’s problems.
As expected, the economy is described as the Executive’s first priority but its aims are considerably less ambitious than before. This reflects the recession but also the risk-averse influence of the Civil Service.
Closing the productivity gap with Great Britain (a major goal for decades) is not set as a firm target. The previous programme aimed to halve the difference with the UK average (excluding South East England) by 2015. Instead, the draft Economic Strategy calls for private sector GVA growth to exceed the UK average.
As of June 2011, almost a third of employees (31.3 per cent) worked for government. The public sector workforce stood at 218,000 while the private sector employed 481,910 staff (with both figures seasonally adjusted). This compares to 221,980 and 487,790 respectively in June 2010.
Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate stood at 7.3 per cent of the workforce (63,000 people) between July and September. A further 51,000 economically inactive people want a job but fall outside the official definition, which in practice brings the unemployment total up to 114,000.
The programme claims that the same number of benefit claimants will be moved into employment by 2014 through welfare reform. No estimate of the inevitable decrease in public sector jobs is included.
Against that, the Executive promises to “support the promotion” of over 25,000 new jobs (5,900 from foreign direct investment) by 2015. Promoted jobs are those expected to be created by Invest NI-supported projects. A total of 15,565 jobs were promoted between 2007 and 2010, although statistics do not show how many still exist.
A call for the “timely and affordable” devolution of corporation tax is contradicted by Sammy Wilson’s prediction that no cut will happen before 2015. Separately, the Executive will lobby the European Commission for the “best possible outcome” for regional aid after 2013.
The regional rate is pegged to inflation. Industry will be encouraged to achieve 20 per cent of electricity consumption from renewables, which depends on adequate grid reinforcement.
Irish Government A5 funding was cut just before the draft Investment Strategy was published. Its specific goals include Belfast rapid transit (construction due from 2012 onwards), the Lisanelly campus, the Desertcreat training college, electronic prescribing in hospitals and a regional library.
Ministers expect tourist numbers to reach 3.6 million by 2013 (generating £625 million), with the help of the Titanic centenary and Derry’s status as UK City of Culture. The 2009 totals, for comparison, were 3.29 million visitors (1.92 million from outside Northern Ireland) and £529 million in revenue.
The SME liquidity scheme was publicised as a £50 million loan fund, although the maximum in this Assembly term will be £30 million.
Ninety per cent of large scale investment planning decisions should be made in six months by 2015. However, 100 per cent was promised immediately in 2008. The modest interim target is 60 per cent in 2012-2013 and 57 per cent was achieved in 2010-2011.
The value of manufacturing exports (currently £5.1 billion) is to be increased by 15 per cent over the next four years. Exports fell by 0.6 per cent in 2010-2011.
DCAL’s creative industries innovation fund would support 200 projects. DEL plans to fund an extra 540 places on STEM courses. The creation of a new food strategy board recognises farming’s strong economic contribution.
Living standards
Two overlapping chapters cover quality of life, officially termed “Creating Opportunities, Tackling Disadvantage and Improving Health and Wellbeing” and “Protecting Our People, the Environment and Creating Safer Communities”.
Practically, this would involve building 8,000 social and affordable homes and the full double glazing of Housing Executive stock. The house-building total is to be expected given that 2,104 were started by housing associations in 2010-2011.
The SDLP and UUP contend that the £80 million Social Investment Fund could go to community groups linked to the DUP and Sinn Féin, a charge denied by both parties. A separate Social Protection Fund, similar to the December 2008 hardship payment, will receive
£20 million per annum. Child poverty is to be reduced, using both funds.
The promise of one year’s pre-school education (from 2013) does not guarantee a nursery school place. Around 90 per cent of children currently have places and the Department of Education already aims to provide one-year places to all parents.
Forty-nine per cent of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds should achieve five GCSEs A*-C by 2015, including in maths and English. The 2009-2010 figure was 31.3 per cent and that target is in keeping with the current annual increases. The same percentage for all young people should increase to 70 per cent, up from 59 per cent in 2009-2010.
Legislation to ban age discrimination in goods, facilities and services is to be drafted next year but only enacted in 2014-2015. To deal with the legacy of the Troubles, OFMDFM also promises to launch a dedicated ‘victims and survivors service’ in 2012-2013.
More chronic condition patients should be able to take up programmes to help them manage their own conditions from 2014-2015. The Health and Social Care Board will co-ordinate existing programmes and roll these out across the province. £7.2 million is set aside to tackle the growing obesity problem.
Environmental commitments include the plastic bag levy, a 35 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions over 1990-2025 (compared to 42 per cent by 2020 in Scotland) and 45 per cent of household waste being recycled by 2015.
For criminal justice, a 3 per cent reduction in violent crime is set as a target. PwC Chief Economist Esmond Birnie commented that the draft programme was “aspirational but lacks substance as well as the necessary milestones and stretching targets.”
He added: “Transformation to a new, prosperous, internationally competitive and socially inclusive Northern Ireland can’t even begin till we’ve defined what it might look like.” Consultees, Birnie said, should not miss the opportunity to become persuaders for a more radical document.
Draft Investment Strategy breakdown (£ million)
| 2011-15 | 2015-21 | Total | |
| Networks | 1,410 | 1,662 | 3,072 |
| Social | 1,130 | 1,345 | 2,475 |
| Health | 851 | 1,470 | 2,321 |
| Environment | 703 | 681 | 1,384 |
| Skills | 652 | 1,282 | 1,934 |
| Productive | 324 | 385 | 709 |
| Justice | 290 | 385 | 675 |
| Others* | 16 | 8 | 24 |
| Total | 5,376 | 7,218 | 12,594 |
*includes the Assembly and minor government organisations
