Demographics and definitions
A summary of population projections for children.
The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) projects that the number of children aged 0-18 will increase from 458,000 in 2012 to a peak of 472,000 in 2023 although the percentage within the population will fall from 25.1 to 24.4 per cent. Significant decreases are expected from that time onwards, down to an estimated 422,000 (20.7 per cent) in 2060.
Meanwhile, the number of people aged over 60 (currently 367,000) would overtake the number of 0-18s in 2024, pass the 500,000 mark two years later and could eventually reach 688,000 in 2060. Population shares for over 60s are projected at 20.1 per cent in 2012, 24.6 per cent in 2024, 30 per cent in 2041 and 33.6 per cent in 2060.
Anyone under 18 is technically considered a child but, as explained below, children are in some ways treated as adults before they attain that age. If children were instead defined as 0-16 year olds, they would be outnumbered by over 60s in 2019.
Of course, people will be expected to work longer in life as the pension age goes up. If older people are considered to be over 65, the ‘crossing point’ year moves back to 2030 (overtaking 0-16s) or 2033 (if the 0-18 definition is used).
People will continue to live (and work) longer but have fewer children, and families will need to care for more dependents (particularly older relatives). The combined 0-18 and 60+ population stands at 40.1 per cent in 2012 but is likely to represent a majority of the population from 2029 onwards.
The UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989) defines a child as every person below the age of 18 “unless, under the law applicable to the child, majority is attained earlier.” It was ratified by the UK in 1991.
Children in care are entitled to education, employment and training services until they turn 21.
Parliament lowered the age of consent in Northern Ireland from 17 to 16 in 2008 but it remains 17 in the Republic.
The Assembly would have maintained the age of consent at 17 as the DUP, UUP, SDLP and Alliance opposed changing the law. That responsibility is now devolved. The age of criminal responsibility is 10 in Northern Ireland, England and Wales, eight in Scotland and 12 in the Republic.
