Belfast South

One to Watch

Northern Ireland’s smallest majority makes Belfast’s southern quarter one of the most exciting election battlegrounds this time round. Unionist unity, or a strong swing to either unionist party, would probably unseat McDonnell. For the record, the total unionist poll was 16,367 in 2005 and 12,370 in 2007.

The nationalist poll has risen over the years. Home to many students and immigrants, it is the most mixed part of Northern Ireland with less sense of community than elsewhere. As part of South Belfast also lies in Castlereagh, the troubles surrounding Iris Robinson may also affect voting patterns there. All these factors make the result less predictable.

Indeed, the Assembly poll saw support for all three of those parties drop significantly. The SDLP polled 8,127, the DUP 6,797 and the UUP a weak 5,573. Simultaneously, the Sinn Féin and Alliance tallies went up to 3,996 and 3,829 respectively. Alliance’s Anna Lo may be increasingly tapping into the moderate middle classes. Not that South Belfast is all leafy suburbs. Many inner-city areas are deeply poor in comparison to their neighbours.

No DUP candidate has yet been put up; the party is still publicly calling for unity. The Ulster Conservatives and Unionists will stand Paula Bradshaw. Alex Maskey is running for Sinn Féin. Despite its genteel reputation, turnout is relatively high for Belfast. The constituency is also expanding south into Carryduff.