Antrim North

One to Watch

Were it not for the senior Paisley stepping down after nearly 40 years as MP for the area, we could have had quite a matchup against TUV leader Jim Allister. As it stands, there will be a Paisley on the ballot paper, but it won’t be the big man.

North Antrim has been one of the safest seats in the province but 2010 could see a change in the guard. Jim Allister will be hoping so.

The TUV claimed victory in the area in last June’s European poll, though no official figures are held. Using the same ratio of vote as the TUV took last June that party could stand to win around 9,500 votes, leaving Paisley as a clear winner with perhaps 11,700. There is, though, no guarantee that the European poll will be replicated.

In 2007 the DUP vote fell slightly to 21,773 votes, far above the UUP’s 3,500. Lyle Cubitt, of the UKUP, garnered 1,848.

New boundaries will come into effect in May. This means the Glens will transfer from to East Antrim, leaving it around fewer 2,000 nationalist voters. With Glenwhirry, Grange and Kells moving from North to South, up to 4,000 DUP voters could join Willie McCrea’s ranks.

Ian Paisley Junior does not yet have his father’s charismatic authority but his name will stand him in good stead. Allister, though, is from the area and a traditional unionist constituency such as North Antrim could be his party’s best chance of a Westminster seat.

Last time out Paisley Senior’s nearest challenger was Sinn Féin’s Philip McGuigan with 7,191; Daithí McKay runs this time. Irwin Armstrong is the Ulster Conservative and Unionist candidate, theoretically starting with 6,328 Assembly votes. The SDLP vote, targeted by Declan O’Loan, held steady at 5,410 first preferences at that poll.