A draft Programme for Government

As the Northern Ireland Executive looks set to publish a Programme for Government (PfG) for the first time in 13 years, David Whelan assesses the detail included in the published draft, supported by all four Executive parties.

The publication of a draft Programme for Government was met with a guarded welcome against a backdrop of long-standing calls for political direction on Northern Ireland’s most pressing challenges.

The last time a Programme for Government was agreed and implemented was in 2011. A new draft in 2016 was published for public consultation but was never signed off following the Executive’s collapse in January 2017.

Published seven months after the current Executive reformation, that the latest draft PfG is supported by all four sitting parties offers hope that it will be signed off, with public consultation having closed in early November 2024.

The Assembly’s official opposition party, the SDLP, was at pains to point out that discussions around a new Programme for Government pre-dated the Executive’s return, the foundation of its criticism that the draft lacks ambition and clear, measurable targets.

The Opposition’s criticism of the absence of “clear, measurable targets” is valid. Deploying ambiguous language, the Executive says it will “make progress” on the redevelopment of Casement Park, that it will be “considering” the recommendations of the All-Island Rail Review, and that it will deliver an “action plan” for the commitment to expand Ulster University’s Magee campus.

A challenging public finance context and shortened mandate has brought about a level of caution in terms of what the Executive parties are willing to commit to. Language surrounding “proposed actions” are notably vague. A pledge to “cut health waiting times”, for example, includes an acknowledgement of the need to increase capacity within the health and social care system “through service reform and reconfiguration”, but the draft PfG does not include measurable targets or costs of achieving this goal.

First Minister Michelle O’Neill MLA’s claim that the priorities set out in the draft PfG were “ambitious and focused”, has been contested by leading voices in sectors such as infrastructure delivery, policing, and renewable energy.

However, such criticism will need to be reserved until the final Programme for Government is published, when it is potentially re-shaped to reflect responses. Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly MLA has indicated an intention to publish “a whole set of outcomes and indicators” alongside the final Programme for Government, and the publication of annual reports of progress.

Priorities

A core criticism of the draft Programme for Government is a failure to fully rank its priorities. The existence of nine “immediate priorities”, proposed by a nine-department Executive, is indicative of an inability to move beyond a siloed mentality and fully address issues on a cross-government basis.

While underpinning detail is lacking, the draft Programme for Government does provide an macro-outline of intended actions across the nine immediate priorities.

Proposed actions for the economy centre on the Economy Minister’s own priority areas of productivity, regional balance, good jobs and decarbonisation. A new skills fund to support key sectors is proposed, as is the publication of a circular economy strategy, and a strategic action plan for tourism.

No timeline has yet been outlined for a promised early learning and childcare strategy, nor for the pledged delivery of a housing strategy, however, the draft PfG does give a vague timeline “by 2025” for the launch of a new fuel poverty strategy.

Welcome commitments include the planned publication of a new environment strategy, which the Minister for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs indicates will be adopted as Northern Ireland’s first Environmental Improvement Plan (EIP) – the statutory deadline for which was missed in July 2023.

Importantly, the Executive has committed to publishing its first Climate Action Plan, originally expected in early 2023. Similarly, pledges to revitalise the Housing Executive and implement a planning improvement programme are long-standing ambitions yet to be realised.

Arguably, the Executive’s freshest ambitions relate to energy and the environment. The Executive says that it will review the Energy Strategy for the five years to 2030 and outlines its intention to establish a just transition.

Funding

From the outset, the draft Programme for Government acknowledges that “demands on our finances outstrip the funding available”. The UK’s October 2024 budget, which allocated an extra £1.2 billon for current spending and £270 million for capital investment is likely to factor into commitments within the final Programme for Government. However, this increase will not be enough to meet combined and competing demands.

The UK Budget is also likely to impact on the Executive’s draft Investment Strategy, currently being developed. The strategy is expected to set out plans to spend around £26 billion over the next decade, however, this represents only a small uplift on current annual spending and has been criticised as lacking ambition by construction industry representatives.

Commentary

Speaking in the Assembly chamber, the First Minister said the Executive was in “listening mode”, giving rise to hopes that the final Programme for Government will be altered from the published draft.

“This is an ambitious plan which is set against the very challenging financial backdrop. But this is a mandate for delivery, and the Programme for Government gives everyone hope for a better future. That is why it is vital we hear your voices on the issues that are important to the public. Together, we can prioritise the issues that matter most and make this an even better place, now and for generations to come,” she said.

SDLP Leader of the Opposition Matthew O’Toole MLA has described the draft Programme for Government as “extremely disappointing” and accused the Executive of rehashing of existing strategies, with a promise of further action, devoid of specific interventions or detail.

“The public have waited years for a clear plan, and after today [it] still do[es] not have one. The Executive cannot expect to be garlanded for simply producing a document full of aspirational language – much of it waffle – but without clear delivery plans, legislation or targets.”