Meeting Ireland’s climate change challenge
John FitzGerald, Chair of the Republic’s Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC), contextualises the climate change challenge facing the island of Ireland.
Setting the scene, FitzGerald highlights that since around 2000, there has been a disconnect between emissions and national income. That is to say that economic growth has occurred without necessarily increasing emissions. “The real problem is that there has only been a slight fall in emissions over the last decade. Our objective is to cut emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 and get to net zero by 2050. There is a massive challenge there,” the CCAC Chair asserts.
“The target is framed in terms of the cumulative total between 2013 and 2020 and even with Covid, we are not going to meet that target of a 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. We set ourselves a target for 2020 and we’re not going to meet it. We are not on the right path.”
The challenge
In 2019, the Irish Government published its Climate Action Plan. Now, the tri-party coalition government has increased the ambition for 2030 and set a net zero target for 2050, consistent with EU obligations. As such, the Climate Action Plan, which designed to meet the original targets is no longer sufficient.
Meanwhile, the EU 2030 Climate Target Plan has yet to be legislated for. “It could shake up the 2030 targets. It represents a major change in policy measures which, if accepted, could alter the policy environment in the Republic and actually make meeting targets slightly easier,” FitzGerald remarks.
To hit the 2030 target, each policy contained within the Climate Action Plan will need to be implemented, while taking into account the “very important role of land use change, sucking carbon out of the atmosphere”.
More will be required, the CCAC Chair contends, to meet the current 2050 goal of an 80 per cent reduction in emissions. “The Climate Action Plan would get us to the existing 2030 target but then the effectiveness would peter out. There is a lot to do if we are to meet our goals and our obligations in terms of climate change,” he adds.
The policies
While acknowledging that the 2019 Climate Action Plan represented a “major leap forward”, FitzGerald advises that the CCAC is “already cautioning that some of the measures may not be sufficient to do achieve the targets”. The first task is to implement the measures in the plan.
The first priority of the CCAC is to provide independent advice to government. As such, one of its initial suggestions was to raise the Carbon Tax. As per Budget 2021, the Carbon Tax is now set at €33.50 per tonne of carbon, rising by between €6 and €7 per annum until 2030, when it will reach €100 per tonne.
“The reason why this is important is because when you tell people to cut their emissions, you won’t get much action; it needs to be profitable. Now, that’s not sufficient to bring about change. But if they’re not going to save money, it’s not going to happen,” FitzGerald observes.
As fuel prices rise, a minimum of one-third of the additional revenue will be required to offset the potentially regressive impact on low-income households. The CCAC Chair maintains that a combination of welfare changes and the retrofitting of social housing will offset any negative impact. “The ESRI’s analysis shows that, actually, the combination is broadly progressive rather than regressive,” he emphasises.
Electricity
Significant progress has been made on the decarbonisation of electricity across the island with the accelerated closure of coal- and peat-fired electricity generation plants. Now, there are new opportunities to produce electricity from renewable energy sources, particularly in the offshore wind sector. To successfully exploit these opportunities, investment in the necessary infrastructure is essential.
“Infrastructure needs to be put in place to allow renewables to work. When I sat on the Northern Ireland Authority for Energy Regulation, we negotiated the all-Ireland electricity market expecting that the Republic would deliver on the necessary electricity interconnector between Northern Ireland and the Republic. I feel kind of betrayed by the Republic in its failure, so far, to implement that. Now, I think that Northern Ireland provided some obstacles there. We need other changes too, including increased interconnection to France,” FitzGerald comments.
Transport
In order to meet its demanding target for electric vehicles, the CCAC Chair contends that it must utilise tax revenue alongside subsidies. The total cost to reach this target, as estimated by the Department of Finance, is around €10 billion. “The State could not support that. So, the tax system needs to change to provide much more encouragement for people to buy electric vehicles,” he says.
“It looks likely that Great Britain will ban fossil fuel vehicles from 2030 onwards. Northern Ireland could become a dumping ground for dirty vehicles, unless it follows suit.”
The CCAC has also recommended that those who live in rural areas and commute greater distances should be prioritised because “there will be a bigger saving and therefore a bigger return in terms of reduced emissions”.
FitzGerald also emphasises the role of public transport. “A key component of the changes for 2050 is the National Planning Framework. Housing development must be controlled so that it takes place in major urban areas with public and active transport connectivity. The future lies in public transport rather than people driving to work.
“As a priority, the Government is going to rejig the bus system through the BusConnects programme, alongside Metro Dublin. The problem is, however, many of these investments won’t reduce emissions by 2030 but if we don’t undertake them now, they won’t reduce emissions by 2050 either,” he insists.
Agriculture
Within agriculture, FitzGerald maintains that there is an opportunity whereby emissions can be reduced while simultaneously enhancing farm income security. “There’s a potential win-win here. On average, farmers in the Republic make nothing out of raising cattle. Farmers in Northern Ireland make nothing out of raising cattle. If they used some of their land to plant trees, to move into forestry biomass, they could make more money and have a more secure stream of income. At the same time, the emissions from methane and nitrates from fertilisers would be reduced,” he argues.
Incentives for such a transition could be delivered in the Republic through the reassessment of Common Agricultural Policy. “Unfortunately in Northern Ireland, I don’t think there’s any plan for the next four years to change the existing legacy regime in terms of the Common Agricultural Policy. In England, there are major changes coming where all compensation for farmers will be allocated in terms of environmental benefits,” the CCAC Chair notes.
Furthermore, the CCAC recommends that the role of farmers in managing carbon stocks be acknowledged. “Farmers need to be rewarded for sucking carbon out of the atmosphere as an important component of offsetting the damaging emissions from methane from cattle.
“The Government should also introduce measures to significantly reduce nitrogen use by 2030 because nitrogen oxide (NOx) gases are a significant component of Ireland’s emissions. In fact, over one-third of Ireland’s emissions as recorded for EU purposes originate through agriculture.”
Built environment
The Irish Government plans to undertake a major retrofitting project, comprising 500,000 homes, by 2030. However, FitzGerald notes that unless the Carbon Tax rises, it will not be profitable to do so. “As resources are limited, the Government needs to target buildings which will most benefit from emissions reductions. These tend to be vulnerable households, including those in social housing. The State is the largest landlord and so it has a duty to make those changes, which is going to be very expensive,” he says, adding: “Homes currently heated by coal, oil or peat, which tend to be in rural areas should also be targeted first because gas fired central heating is less damaging in urban areas.”
“Policy is going to fail unless it is seen to be fair… If people feel that it is unfair; that the burden is falling on people who cannot afford to pay, then there will be major resistance.”
Overall, high rates of retrofit will not be achieved unless there is low-cost finance for households. That is a major obstacle. “You’re talking about households having to spend maybe €50 billion over the next 30 years to retrofit their houses, if we are to get to net zero. That is a massive investment by households. Making this happen efficiently and helping households to do it; the State cannot finance it. The State will have to finance the houses that it does own in terms of social housing.”
Progress
Any progress must be made on an all-island basis. The lack of cohesion between the jurisdictions on the island during the Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of the climate action strategy.
“Over time, policy in the Republic will be less effective if Northern Ireland’s approach does not develop. For instance, the Republic should ban the sale of coal and peat. However, if you ban it in the Republic and not in the North, there will be massive cross-border trade in coal and peat. If the Carbon Tax reaches €100 per tonne of carbon on heating oil in the Republic, there will be a similar mismatch,” FitzGerald stresses.
Likewise, If Northern Ireland’s approach does not develop consistent with the approach in Great Britain, it will create additional challenges. “For example, it looks likely that Great Britain will ban fossil fuel vehicles from 2030 onwards. Northern Ireland could become a dumping ground for dirty vehicles, unless it follows suit. Of course, Northern Ireland has the devolved responsibilities in terms of the environment,” he adds.
Likewise, if the Republic bans the sale of coal and peat in the absence of a similar initiative in the North, or if the Carbon Tax reaches €100 per tonne of carbon in the Republic, it could create a significant cross-border trade which circumvents the intention. As such, the rate of change could well be dictated by the climate action laggard among the administrations in Britain and Ireland.
Conclusion
In his concluding remarks, FitzGerald asserts that the increased ambition to tackle climate change in the Republic must be matched by the implementation of new measures to drive decarbonisation.
“Even the Climate Action Plan of 2019 isn’t enough. We need to do more in agriculture in terms of reducing the national cattle herd, which wasn’t part of the plan. We need to do more in terms of heating, retrofitting and finding alternative ways to reduce emissions. We need to more, not just on electric cars, but in other areas of public transport if we are to meet our 2030 target.
“Finally, policy is going to fail unless it is seen to be fair. The just transition is really important and that’s why, in terms of the revenue from the Carbon Tax, when the Minister sets out in his budget what is going to happen, he also sets out where the money is going to go. If people feel that it is unfair, that the burden is falling on people who cannot afford to pay, then there will be major resistance,” he remarks.
