Belfast North

It is no secret that Nigel Dodds sees himself as a parliamentarian. If re-elected as an MP, he will be stepping down as an MLA, thus signalling the end of his Stormont career.

While his is not a vast majority, Dodds does enjoy some breathing space. Indeed the 3,000 strong DUP vote coming in from Newtownabbey Council wards Ballyhenry, Collinbridge, Glebe, Glengormley, Hightown and Cloughfern will bolster the deputy leader’s position.

Similarly, Gerry Kelly could reasonably expect to attract around 1,500 Sinn Féin votes as a result of the boundary changes. That addition could see him break the 10,000 mark.

In 2007 the DUP vote in the area stooped to around 11,000, while Sinn Féin’s remained broadly the same as two years previously. The SDLP will also be smarting, having lost the best part of 1,000 votes in that election. Big-hitter and European candidate Alban Maginness has stood aside, leaving Cathal Mullaghan to build on his party’s share of the vote.

The UUP’s sole candidate Fred Cobain increased his vote in 2007 by 350 votes but realistically such a rise will play little part in the general election. The Northern Ireland Conservatives did not stand a candidate in either poll so estimating Conservative support is difficult.

The Alliance vote did not fluctuated to any real extent between the two polls, staying in and around the 450 mark. Billy Webb will hope to take on the votes garnered in 2007 by independents Rainbow George (40) and Raymond McCord (1,320) should they not stand.